Luck vs Preparation

By Coach Adam

“Victory awaits him who has everything in order — “luck” people call it. Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time; this is called “bad luck.”

- Roald Amundsen, The South Pole

There are many things in life that are completely beyond our control.  From big-picture things, like the weather or the global economy, down to minor things, like a random noise breaking our concentration during a task, or a stubbed toe. The truth is that no one is able to predict the future with any sort of true certainty.

And while this applies to everyone, and we all face the same uncertain circumstances, why do we still have the tendency to label those who thrive as “lucky,” and those who stumble as “down on their luck?"

Now, I don’t mean to say that there are not instance where luck plays a role in success or failure.  There are varying degrees of chance in every event. But, more often than not, it seems that the favorable outcomes go to those not that are more lucky, but rather better prepared for when things turn sour.

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In October of 1911, two teams set out to be the first explorers to reach the South Pole.  One was led by Roald Amundsen, the other by Robert Falcon Scott. The circumstances (though brutally harsh), were essentially identical for both groups —  they embarked within days of one another, and had the same ratio of bad weather days to good weather days (56%) in their first 34 days.

Despite these similarities, the outcomes were quite different: Amundsen’s team reached the South Pole on December 15th, 1911, and arrived safely back to base camp on January 25th.  Scott’s team finally arrived at the Pole one month AFTER Amundsen’s team.  Running out of supplies, and facing deteriorating conditions, Scott stalled in mid-March.  The frozen bodies of his expedition crew were discovered eight month’s later by a British reconnaissance party.

Jim Collins, author of Great by Choice, points out that it was not luck that defined the course of history for each of these men and their respective crews, but their preparation for the unknown.

In the years leading up to his quest, Roald Amundsen made a pilgrimage to apprentice with Eskimos, and learn how to use dogs to pull sleds.  He experimented with eating raw dolphin meat, to see if it were a useful source of fuel (in case he ever were to be shipwrecked).

“Amundsen’s philosophy:” Collins writes, “You don’t wait until you’re in an unexpected storm to discover that you need more strength and endurance…You prepare with intensity, all the time, so that when conditions turn against you, you can draw from a deep reservoir of strength.  And equally, you prepare so that when conditions turn in your favor, you can strike hard.”

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We work a lot with our coaches and clients on this exact type of thinking.  Once we begin to think that the problem is “out there,” and not within, we compromise our chances at success.  Instead of becoming “victims” of circumstance, we must focus on what is within our control (our training, our attitude, our willingness to put in effort), in order to reach our goals, regardless of what difficulties may lie ahead.  Beyond that, even before effort and work come into the picture, we must first PLAN appropriately for our journey, whatever that may be.

So, while Scott stored one ton of supplies for 17 men, Amundsen stored three tons for 5 men.  While Scott attempted to use ponies to drag his sleds (they froze pretty quickly), Amundsen used dogs.

As Collins writes, “A single detail aptly highlights the difference in their approaches: Scott brought one thermometer for a key altitude-measurement device, and exploded in ‘an outburst of wrath and consequence’ when it broke; Amundsen brought FOUR such thermometers to cover for accidents.”

Whether your goal be to explore uncharted lands, finish in the top 100 of your region in the Open, or just lose a little weight and feel better when you wake up, there is one thing for certain: you cannot predict the future, or how your “luck” will fall.  You can, however, control not only how you prepare for that luck (or lack thereof), as well as how you react to it.

A well-known golfer once said: “The one thing I've found out is that the more I practice, the luckier I get.”